October 07, 2024 – With the latest job growth report surpassing everyone’s expectation, financial markets now believe the central bank is not likely to cut rates aggressively in at least their upcoming November meeting. The anticipation of the Fed’s slower rate cut pace prompted a drop in bond prices and a surge in yields since late last week. Mortgage rates, as such, have jumped back to the highest level since early August. While the strong job growth in September is great news for the economy, there is still plenty of evidence to suggest that the labor market is cooling. As such, mortgage rates should begin to stabilize in the next couple of weeks and will come down before the end of the year. The eventual decline, however, is expected to be gradual and a sharp drop is unlikely.

U.S. hiring exceeds expectations: The latest employment report came in much stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls increasing 254k in September, while job growth in August and July was revised upward by a cumulative 72k. The surge in jobs last month was the highest reading since March and it exceeded the 150k projected by the consensus. Most of the job growth was in leisure and hospitality (+78k), health care (+45k), and the government (+31k). Other sectors continued to exhibit signs of cooling, with professional and business services (+17k), financial services (+5k), and information (+4k) all growing but at a softer pace. Manufacturing and temporary staffing, in fact, continued to shed jobs in September. The unemployment rate improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points and fell to 4.1%, the second straight month of decline since its recent high of 4.3% recorded in July. The solid gain in job creation also spilled over to earnings, with average hourly wage rising 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year. With the labor market’s strength coming in stronger than anticipated, the Fed will not likely cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) in their November FOMC meeting, but a quarter-point increment should still be in the book.     

Mortgage rates jump to 2-month high: Mortgage rates surged on Friday following the release of a strong-than-expected jobs report and climbed again earlier this week as investors lowered their expectations on the Fed’s rate cuts in their upcoming FOMC meetings. Bond prices extended their drops on Monday, with the 10-year yield rising 4 bps to 4.01%, a level last seen in August. As of October 7^th, traders believed that there is a 0% chance the Fed will cut its policy rate by 50 bps and an 85% chance that it will cut rate by 25 bps. The odds for a 50-bps rate cut registered at the start of this week were significantly lower than the 35% chance recorded a week ago. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6.62% as of October 7^th, the highest level in two months, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates will stabilize though and should slowly come back down in the next few weeks. The decline, however, is expected to be gradual and a sharp drop before the end of the year is unlikely.

Housing sentiment reaches a two-year high as consumers expect rates to fall: Home Purchase Sentiment released by Fannie Mae climbed 1.8 points in September to the highest level in more than two years, as housing confidence inched up further. With mortgage rates remaining near the lowest level since February 2023 throughout the month of September, a record 42% of the survey respondents said that they expect rates to decline over the next 12 months, an increase from 39% recorded in the prior month. The optimism towards mortgage rates is also reflected by a slight increase in positivity of home buying, as the share who said that it is a good time to buy inched up 2 points to 19% in September. Housing sentiment among renters, a group where first-time homebuyers commonly emerge from, has also seen some notable improvement in the past three months, as the share of renters who believe it is a good time to buy a home has increased from 13% to 20%. The steady increase in the overall housing sentiment is a good sign for the market and could be a signal that more potential homebuyers will be off the sidelines in coming months.

Construction spending drops for the third straight month: U.S. construction spending dipped again in August as builders attempted to find a balance between supply and demand, amid an environment where interest rates remain high and operational costs stay elevated. The total outlays fell 0.1% month-over-month but increased 4.1% year-over-year. The pullback was due primarily to drops in the private residential category, as spending on new single-family projected slumped 1.5% from the prior month. The drop was somewhat expected as permits for single-family in the first half of the year had been falling. Multifamily outlays also slipped 0.4% month-over-month, registering the 13^th dip in the last 14 months, as developers continued to adjust to the largest influx of multifamily housing supply in nearly half a century. Despite the spike observed in the past few days, mortgage rates should begin to stabilize and gradually come down before the end of the year. As such, construction activity will likely turn around in the coming months.

Apartment rent remains cheaper than a year ago: The U.S. apartment rent growth continued to be soft as vacancy rate reached the highest level since August 2020. According to the latest Apartment List National Rent Report, the national median rent for apartments dipped 0.5% month-over-month and declined 0.7% year-over-year in September. The median of $1,405 reported last month was $10 cheaper than the national median one year ago, and the year-over-year declining trend has persisted for over 18 months. Rent falls were observed across the nation, with 51 of the nation’s 100 largest cities experiencing negative rent growth. The steepest drops in rent remained concentrated in Sun Belt metros where many new multifamily units were added this year. At the state level, California recorded a median rent of $2,169 last month, a dip of 0.4% from 12 months ago. With more apartment units expected to be delivered before the end of the year, rent growth will remain soft but will likely improve in 2025 as inventory begins to normalize.

Note: Due to technical issues, the weekly MLS data report as well as the infographic have not been updated this week. We are hoping to resume our reporting of weekly MLS data by the following week. Thank you for your understanding and patience!